Bhubaneswar: With the probable formation of two back-to-back low pressure areas over the Bay of Bengal between October 8 and 14, weather models indicate movement of one of the predicted systems towards the Odisha-Andhra coasts Pradesh.
According to the IMD: GFS model, a system is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal around October 12 with movement towards the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coasts. The model further indicates that the system is likely to cross the coast around October 15 (see photos below).
In contrast, the ECMWF model indicates that the system could approach the Visakhapatnam-Kakinada coasts around October 15.
If the system escalates into a cyclonic storm, it will be named Cyclone Jawad.
Read also- Explained: Why and how are cyclones named.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had not yet made any predictions in this regard.
The agency, in its “North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis” published on September 30, predicted the formation of two low pressure areas over the Bay of Bengal between October 8 and 14.
“The models indicate the development of a new low pressure zone (LPA) during the first half of week 2 (8-14 October) over the central west and adjacent to the southwest of the Bay of Bengal and another LPA over east-central Bay of Bengal and northern Andaman Sea later in week 2, ”IMD said.
Note that the 1999 super cyclone, Cyclone Phailin (2013), Cyclone Hudhud (2014) and Cyclone Titli (2018) occurred in October.